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In this video, we will analyze the Ukrainian counterattack north of Li-man.

Here, after months of costly assaults, Russian attempts to advance were stopped dramatically by the Ukrainians. However, the Ukrainians did not simply sit behind their defensive lines waiting for the enemy to attack again, and prepared a plan to break the Russian lines wide open.

As Russian combat power and offensive capability drained, the Ukrainians maintained an active defense. The Ukrainian Third Army Corps conducted repeated local counterattacks, supported by artillery strikes and drone operations, which continuously drained Russian manpower and resources, preventing them from launching larger assaults. However, Ukraine was quietly preparing something larger.

The timing reflects months of preparation, as once Russian advances stalled, Ukrainian commanders gained the opportunity to rotate forces, improve logistics, accumulate reserves, and conduct extensive reconnaissance efforts. At the same time, Ukrainian strikes continued to degrade Russian supply routes over the Zherebets River by targeting pontoon bridges. As a result, by the time Ukrainian forces launched their offensive, Russian formations had already suffered heavy attrition while being stretched across an increasingly vulnerable salient.

As you remember, Ukrainians had jump-started their counterattacks by launching a deep breakthrough into the northern part of the Russian salient. Now, Ukrainians built on that momentum and quickly retook control of a forest strip to the west of here. This pincer attack cuts off consolidated Russian control over Ridkodub and places Russian soldiers inside in an operational encirclement.

However, the assaults did not end there; to the south, Ukrainians conducted a similar pincer maneuver on Russian forces in Shandriholove, cutting off Russian control of Serednie. While Russian forces in these pockets are not fully encircled, Ukrainian pressure on their rear means that any and all Russian reinforcements sent in are immediately tied down between the Ukrainian pincers. This then allows continuous FPV drone strikes to degrade Russian positions before Ukrainians move in and clear the full area without taking any friendly casualties.

Importantly, the Ukrainian Third Army Corps is extensively using ground attack drones to achieve its successes, as seen in various footage from the area. These ground drones allow Ukrainian soldiers at the tip of the pincers to maintain stable supply lines, with these robots being extremely resistant to Russian artillery and mortar fire, and even Russian FPV strikes.

Additionally, ground attack drones play a major role in their ground assault operations. Smaller vehicles akin to remote-controlled toy cars are strapped with explosives and driven straight into Russian bunkers or buildings, detonating and collapsing entire structures and strongpoints full of Russian soldiers at barely any cost.

Then, on the larger drones, Ukrainians mount heavy machine guns to engage Russian soldiers directly or suppress enemy positions, allowing Ukrainian assault troops to close the distance safely. These machine-gun ground drones excel at their task, as on the Ukrainian battlefield, staying light and mobile during an assault can mean the difference between life and death for soldiers under heavy enemy drone observation and strikes, as well as drawing enemy fire onto the way more heavily armored ground drone.

As Ukrainian forces expanded their breakthrough, Russian commanders attempted to rush reinforcements across the Zherebets River to stabilize the front. Understanding the importance of preventing this, the Ukrainians took countermeasures, and these efforts quickly turned into another series of disasters. The Ukrainians have established firm FPV fire control over the crossings, preventing the enemy from reinforcing the areas under Ukrainian attack. Released footage shows even single Russian soldiers being targeted while trying to cross the river, while the vehicles used to transport them to the crossing points are also hunted down by Ukrainian drone operators.

Overall, the Ukrainian counteroffensive against the Russian salient near Li-man is steadily producing results by combining sustained attritional pressure with carefully prepared offensive operations. The Ukrainian forces have expanded their breakthrough and placed the entire salient under increasing risk of collapse, while the extensive use of ground drones continues to preserve Ukrainian lives while improving their battlefield effectiveness, allowing Ukrainian commanders to maintain relentless pressure on increasingly strained Russian forces. Through these developments, the Ukrainian battle to eliminate the Russian salient north of Li-man is showcasing how Ukraine transforms active defense into an offensive opportunity.

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In this video, we will analyze important developments in the Baltic Sea.

Here, Ukraine has just started to demolish Russia’s Baltic Fleet with long-range drone strikes. The targets of the devastating blow have become the warships responsible for protecting Russian tanker routes.

Recent footage shows a large-scale Ukrainian drone strike reaching beyond Saint Petersburg, more than one thousand and one hundred kilometers from the Ukrainian border. During it, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces hit a Russian corvette twice while it was undergoing repairs in a dry dock at Kronstadt. The attack is especially notable because the vessel is new and equipped with the latest anti-ship, anti-submarine, and air-defense systems. These capabilities allowed it to serve as an armed escort vessel for shadow fleet tankers transiting through the Baltic Sea. The timing of the strike was also embarrassing for Russia, as Saint Petersburg was hosting an economic forum where Vladimir Putin was expected to highlight the strength and stability of the Russian economy.

The reason why Ukrainian drone operators targeted the vessel is exactly its role in escorting tankers belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet through international waters, including the English Channel. By degrading the combat capabilities of the Baltic Fleet, Ukraine can deprive Russian cargo vessels of receiving naval escorts, a key element of Russia’s plan to deter sanction enforcement by European countries. With the limited number of ships Russia has to fulfill this role, each successful strike cripples Russian abilities to do so further. At the same time, the strike also broadens opportunities for international pressure on Russia as the effectiveness of its navy declines, so European countries can intercept the undefended Russian oil tankers without any risk of escalation. For example, French authorities capitalized on the lack of armed escorts and boarded a tanker linked to the shadow fleet and detained its captain.

The significance of the strike is that it affects the protection of tankers starting from Russia’s Baltic ports, which have become the primary export points for Russian oil. Despite also being targeted by the Ukrainians, they are still regarded as slightly more secure than those in the Black Sea, which is under Ukrainian fire control with naval and long-range drones. Now, Russia exports approximately fifty percent of its seaborne crude oil from its Baltic Sea ports, which makes it heavily reliant on this route. However, the oil tankers going through here need to be escorted by warships to dissuade interception at sea by Ukraine’s European allies, which has been happening increasingly often. Notably, the Russian naval escorts create an effective political deterrent against boardings at sea, proven by the track record of unhindered passage of Russian tankers through European waters.

Since the end of March, approximately three hundred vessels from Russia's shadow fleet have transited through British waters, most of them via the English Channel. Despite this, not a single vessel was stopped or inspected, leading Russian commentators to boast that European countries are unwilling to intervene, and the presence of even a single Russian escort warship was enough to deter them. However, the Russian Baltic Fleet losses will change this balance of power in Europe’s and Ukraine’s favor because Russia will increasingly be unable to project power.

By targeting Russian warships and reducing their number, Ukraine is indirectly making it easier for Nato countries to take action against vessels associated with Russia's shadow fleet. Here, Ukraine is using the same strategy as it did in the Black Sea, where approximately thirty percent of Russia’s fleet has been destroyed since two thousand and twenty-two. Notably, this follows the same pattern as it is not the first successful strike against Baltic Fleet assets. At Primorsk Port, Ukrainian forces damaged a guided-missile corvette and a patrol boat. In another attack, Ukrainian drones struck a patrol icebreaker, which is a dual-purpose vessel used by the FSB Border Service that combines military capabilities with icebreaking functions.

Overall, these strikes contribute to a steady erosion of Russia's naval capabilities in the Baltic region. As a result, Russia has an increasingly limited pool of warships that can be assigned to escort and protect vessels linked to its shadow fleet, enabling European countries to intercept sanctioned Russian vessels. The ultimate target is not the ships themselves, but Russia's ability to protect oil exports and generate revenue for the war effort.

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Today, there is interesting news from the Liman direction.

Here, Ukrainian troops have crossed the Zherebets River at several points, putting Russian forces north of Liman in an increasingly dangerous situation, as even Russian military bloggers are now alarmed about the development. This effectively confirms that Ukraine has consolidated the settlements on the western bank after eliminating the Russian salient there. Ukrainian units are now pushing from Ivanivka into Terny and Novosadove, from Novoliubavka toward Nevske, and operating around Zarichne in the direction of Torske.

The crossing toward Terny is particularly important because it seals off the Russian pocket in Kolodiazi, where more than one hundred Russian soldiers remain trapped after the wider Russian withdrawal attempt. Previously, they theoretically retained the possibility of escaping east toward the river, even though at great risk of Ukrainian drone fire. Ukrainian troops operating beyond the Zherebets can now threaten those routes from the opposite bank, leaving the remaining Russians without any chance of withdrawal.

At the same time, Russian analysts acknowledge serious problems for their forces, like their depleted formations fighting against fresher Ukrainian assault units, and the lack of effective supplies due to the intense Ukrainian drone activity around river crossings. However, the Russian command appears to be underreporting the severity of the collapse, which only makes things worse for the Russian forces on the ground. The advancing Ukrainian forward units have not yet encountered the concentration of Russian air and drone strikes expected against a major breakthrough, as they are penetrating territory still considered by the Russian command to be a relatively safer rear.

This threatens Russian drone detachments positioned behind the former frontline, which contain highly trained operators whose loss would be considerably more damaging than losing ordinary infantry. If Ukrainian assault groups reach their positions, Russia could simultaneously lose personnel, equipment, and drone fire support needed by nearby formations.

The consequences would be especially serious for the Russians still trapped west of the river. Drone deliveries cannot sustain an isolated force indefinitely, but they can transport ammunition, food, medicine, and batteries. Destroying or displacing Russian drone teams would therefore remove even this limited lifeline.

There is also another opportunity for Ukraine to exploit, because when a frontline moves rapidly, drone units need time to relocate, establish communications, position reconnaissance platforms, and rebuild the reconnaissance-to-strike kill chain. Russia should now be doing exactly that east of the Zherebets. Instead, attempts to soften the scale of the defeat for Russian audiences create further confusion inside the command structure. As Russian commanders continue working from maps showing lost territory as Russian-controlled, they issue orders based on a battlefield that no longer exists. Drone teams remain in supposedly safe positions, artillery receives incorrect targeting restrictions, and reserves are directed toward strongpoints already bypassed by Ukrainian troops, making them easy prey for ambushes both from the ground and the air.

Ukraine crossing the river itself suggests Russian defenses have not reorganized quickly enough. Ukrainian commanders generally avoid committing assault infantry across major obstacles without sufficient reconnaissance and support, so moving beyond the Zherebets indicates they see an opportunity to exploit Russian disorganization before a coherent defensive line emerges, with Ukrainian troops already appearing behind what Russia expected to become its next defensive barrier. 

Overall, Russia’s effort to minimize the loss of its western Zherebets salient is helping produce another crisis, as Ukraine has not merely captured an abandoned bridgehead, but its assault groups are already crossing the obstacle the Russian command needed to stabilize behind. If Russian drone units can't be relocated on time to establish a new kill chain, Ukrainian infiltrations can lead to the establishment of footholds before organized resistance develops. That would transform into a broader breakdown of Russian lines and potentially threaten the other remaining Russian approach toward Liman.

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Today, the biggest news comes from Bulgaria.

Here, a major sabotage attack has destroyed most of the Starlink infrastructure at a secret facility near Sofia, after two masked individuals deliberately set fire to eleven of the seventeen antennas installed at the site. The attack immediately raised alarm because these antennas were connected to the Starlink satellite network and provided communications that are also used by Ukraine during the war, meaning an act of arson directly damaged infrastructure supporting Ukrainian connectivity far beyond its own borders. Bulgarian member of parliament Ivaylo Mirchev revealed the incident publicly and accused the authorities of remaining silent, while questioning how two attackers were able to reach a secured communications facility and destroy nearly two thirds of its antennas without being stopped. He also criticized Bulgaria’s security services for failing to prevent what he described as suspected Russian sabotage. Bulgaria’s security chief later explained that part of the station’s fencing had been removed during expansion work, making it easier for the attackers to reach the antennas.

Ukraine depends on Starlink because the system allows military units to maintain communications even when conventional networks are unavailable near the front. More than fifty thousand Starlink terminals have been delivered to Ukraine since the beginning of the full scale invasion, supporting the military alongside hospitals, emergency services, schools, energy facilities, local authorities, and businesses during blackouts and communications outages. On the battlefield, terminals connect directly with satellites overhead, allowing soldiers to transmit battlefield information, coordinate movements, relay reconnaissance from drones, and keep commanders connected with units across large distances. Starlink is also resistant to many forms of Russian electronic jamming, which made satellite connections especially valuable for controlling drones where ordinary radio links become unreliable. The antennas near Sofia support this system from the ground by exchanging data with Starlink satellites and routing that traffic into local internet networks, helping complete the connection between users in Ukraine and the wider communications network behind the constellation.

The significance of the attack grew further when, shortly afterward, Ukrainian forces reported serious disruptions to the military version of Starlink called Starshield. Ukrainian attack and air defense drones using the system suddenly began losing their connections once they exceeded roughly one hundred sixty kilometers per hour, disrupting missions without any advance warning to the units operating them. Ukrainian troops then recorded interruptions lasting between ten and twenty seconds during flight, making drones difficult to control and forcing several missions to be cancelled. At the same time, Ukraine went two consecutive nights without receiving the usual warning from its partners about Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv. These warnings depend partly on the American Space Based Infrared System, whose satellites detect the intense heat produced when ballistic missiles launch, and Europe currently has no equivalent system capable of immediately replacing it. The connection to Washington became even more direct when Elon Musk stated that limits on Starshield speed or usage are decided by the United States military and ultimately by the president. As Trump pressures Ukraine over its long range operations, Ukrainian forces are now facing restrictions on drone communications, gaps in missile warning data, and the destruction of Starlink infrastructure supporting the network from Bulgaria all at once.

Overall, the attack in Bulgaria exposes Europe’s dependence on infrastructure it cannot readily replace, because the systems keeping Ukraine connected now extend across allied territory while no European network can match Starlink at the same scale. That dependence means protecting Ukraine’s communications increasingly requires protecting ground infrastructure inside Europe itself, from satellite terminals and relay sites to the power systems that keep them running. It also gives Washington enormous influence over Ukrainian operations, because restrictions on American controlled satellite links and missile warning data can immediately affect what Ukrainian forces are able to see, coordinate, and strike. Europe is therefore being pushed toward building its own resilient communications and early warning architecture, since every delay leaves another part of Ukraine’s military network dependent on systems that either Russia can attack or the United States can restrict.

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Today, there are dangerous updates from Ukraine.
Here, Ukraine’s counteroffensive campaigns have been stabbed in the back by a disruption of American satellite communications. Mid-combat, Ukrainian forces discovered that Starlink terminals were losing connectivity whenever drones they were attached to exceeded certain speeds. Depending on the platform, disconnections occurred between seventy and one-hundred-and-sixty kilometers per hour.

Ukraine’s Seventh Air Assault Corps reported disruptions around Huliaipole, with Ukrainian unmanned units canceling their missions, while Ukrainian commanders scrambled to understand restrictions imposed without advance warning.

Meanwhile, the political circumstances have triggered accusations that Ukraine is being stabbed in the back by the American government, as Trump has pressured Ukraine over strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, blaming Zelensky for rising global oil prices. Yet the Middle Eastern conflict and continuing shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz are the real major factors behind the energy-market instability, as currently around a million barrels are moved through it per day, while before the war there were twenty million per day. As a result, Ukrainian officials suspect the satellite restrictions represent another attempt to force them toward Washington’s proposed energy arrangement with Moscow.

The timing could hardly be worse, as Ukraine’s recent counteroffensives around Huliaipole, Liman and other sectors depend heavily on medium-range drones destroying Russian reinforcements before they reach the battlefield. Starlink terminals are used to identify moving trucks, ammunition convoys, troop transports, and command vehicles, then attack before the Russian targets disappear, and without reliable high-speed satellite connections, that entire process becomes considerably harder.

Russian columns could begin moving more freely through areas previously dominated by Ukrainian drones. Additional ammunition, fuel, and reinforcements could reach frontline formations, allowing Russian commanders to rebuild depleted units and prepare renewed winter assaults.

The consequences would extend beyond logistics, as Russian drone operators, previously threatened by Ukrainian strikes against their vehicles and positions, could regain operational freedom. That would increase pressure on Ukrainian infantry, complicate counterattacks, and make positions harder to defend. This threatens the operational foundation of campaigns such as Vivaldi, where months of Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear-area logistics helped prepare successful ground advances.

Long-range operations face a different challenge. Drones requiring continuous communications benefit from live course corrections, updated targeting information, and the ability to respond to changing conditions, while losing those capabilities makes missions less adaptable and less effective.

However, Ukraine’s strikes deep inside Russia generally use alternative communications and navigation systems because Starshield is geographically restricted. Consequently, the immediate disruption primarily threatens mid-range operations and air defense rather than stopping Ukraine’s strategic strikes.

The defensive consequences are particularly alarming, as Ukraine increasingly relies on interceptor drones to destroy incoming Russian Shaheds before they reach cities and energy infrastructure. These systems require rapid coordination, targeting updates, and reliable communication while pursuing fast-moving targets, and if satellite connectivity disappears during acceleration, interception opportunities shrink dramatically. More Russian drones could penetrate Ukrainian defenses, forcing missile batteries, electronic-warfare systems, and conventional weapons to compensate, which would result in additional pressure on the already stretched Ukrainian defenses and potentially more civilian casualties.

At the same time, responsibility for the cutoff remains disputed, as Elon Musk declared that Starshield operates under American government control, with restrictions ultimately determined by the US military and the president. The White House denied ordering the limitations, while American officials reportedly suggested a technical malfunction, with all sides shifting the blame. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski publicly challenged Musk over the treatment of his European customers, reminding him that Poland helps finance Ukraine’s satellite connectivity. As a result, some service was restored, with Ukrainian officials reporting improved connectivity up to one-hundred-and-sixty kilometers per hour.

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Today, the most important news is coming from the Orikhiv direction. 

With Russians failing on so many fronts, Russian generals are ordering a mad dash to curry favor with Putin and achieve a victory for Russian media. However, overexcited Russian frontline reporters and the presence of highly skilled Ukrainian special forces on the Russian flanks might spell disaster for the new Russian redemption offensive. 

The main target of the Russian attacks is the Ukrainian town of Orikhiv, which Russians have failed to capture for over four-and-a-half years. Notably, the battle for the small town of Mala Tokmachka is the longest battle of the entire war in Ukraine lasting over one-thousand-six-hundred-twenty days. And despite sending in hundreds of soldiers now, it is still not under complete Russian control. 

The Russian plan is to first pressure Orkhiv, before surrounding and cutting off its main supply lines. To accomplish this, Russians first significantly increased the pressure on Mala Tokmachka and launched a massive infiltration effort against it from the south and east. Through this, Russians were finally able to establish a foothold in the town and spread their infiltrators across the remaining part of it. Next, Russians launched another major infiltration offensive against the town of Novodanylivka to the south, similarly establishing a foothold there, while also pushing their newly infiltrated forces into Orikhiv itself. Notably, while this secured three important tactical victories for Russia, the spread-out nature of their forces meant Russian soldiers on the ground found it difficult to fully consolidate their gains, with Ukrainian drone bombers flying round-the-clock sorties to strike their positions. 

Understanding that holding on to three footholds at once would not secure their much-needed victory, Russian forces opted to try to further encircle the town of Orikhiv before making their next push forward. In the west, Russians pressed forward their reserves and captured the town of Mali Shcherbaky. From here, they launched further intense infiltration efforts toward Tavriiske, Yurkivka, and Novopavlivka. While Ukrainians prevented Russians from capturing these towns or establishing a foothold here, the presence of Russian infiltrators made transporting logistics into Orikhiv much more dangerous. However, the Russians did not stop there; they soon also infiltrated the settlement of Chervona Krynytsia. Again, Russians failed to establish a foothold here, and many enemy soldiers were killed by drones in the open fields, while the presence of Russian soldiers in the village still meant that another Ukrainian logistics route into Orikhiv is under threat. 

Unfortunately for Russians, while their efforts have been successful and it looks as if they are on the cusp of victory, false frontline reporting might once again become their downfall. Specifically, Russian military reporters are far exaggerating the success of their advances here. The areas where Russians are only infiltrating, Russians are already proclaiming as fully under their control. Similarly, Russians are claiming that Orikhiv itself is essentially fully captured as well, despite Russians in reality still only being present in the southeast. Currently, geolocations of Russian strikes show how Orikhiv and Ukrainian supply routes into the town are coming under heavy Russian air and artillery strikes. However, if false Russian reporting continues, these strikes might soon cease, as Russian artillery and air forces will not strike positions that the army has supposedly already captured, even if in reality Ukrainians still hold strong positions here. 

Additionally, less than thirty kilometers to the west of Orikhiv stands a large concentration of Ukrainian special forces units, including the elite forces of Ukraine’s military intelligence GUR.  These forces were just recently involved in the Ukrainian counterattacks that beat back a Russian advance on Zaporizhia city during the winter and spring months. The proximity of this battle-hardened force concentration to the renewed Russian offensive on Orikhiv might spell disaster for the now rather exposed Russian flanks. 

Overall, while Russians achieved significant successes in the first stages of their renewed offensive, they are already proclaiming victory before the battle has actually concluded. Similar to recent Russian defeats, it could well be that Russians have still not learned from their mistakes. While the presence of Ukrainian special operations forces on the western flank could result in yet another Ukrainian victory, the situation within the town itself is extremely difficult and should not be understated.

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Today, there are interesting developments in the Sumy direction.

Here, starving Russian soldiers are now killing each other at food depots, as the neglected front and deteriorating logistics situation is nearing a breaking point. As the Russian high command has seemingly neglected this front for too long, Russians are crossing the trenches and surrendering crucial intelligence in exchange for a warm meal.

After the fighting around Kursk stalled and left Russian forces exhausted, this sector appears to have slipped down the priority list. The troops left there were still expected to hold the line, but with too few deliveries, too few replacements, and too little command attention to sustain it properly. As food, ammunition, and basic supplies arrived late or in insufficient amounts, positions could still appear occupied on the map while the soldiers inside them were increasingly left unable to defend or even survive properly.

The clearest breaking point came when the shortage turned violent inside the Russian ranks. According to radio intercepts, personnel from the Russian Thirtieth Regiment and the Eight Hundred Tenth Marine Brigade were dividing a warehouse of provisions in the Kursk region when the situation escalated into a shootout. These were not Russian soldiers fighting Ukrainians over a position, but Russian units opening fire on each other while trying to secure food for themselves, making the shortage visible not as poor morale, but as a breakdown inside the rear itself.

The same pattern had already appeared during the winter in an even more primitive form. In one reported case, four Russian infantrymen who had been sent into the Sumy area were left without proper logistical support and began searching for food. Instead, they wandered into Ukrainian positions by accident, where fighters from the Forty Seventh Separate Mechanized Brigade took them prisoner. That incident shows that the collapse in this sector had already begun shaping behavior months earlier, as these soldiers were no longer trying to hold their positions, but simply to survive the conditions imposed on them by their own side.

The same logic appeared again in April, when a Belarusian volunteer serving with Russian forces tried to surrender in the Sumy region. While attempting to reach Ukrainian lines on his own, he stepped on a mine and had to be rescued after Ukrainian soldiers heard his screams. One of the Ukrainian fighters reportedly carried him for ten kilometers through mined terrain so he could later be exchanged for a captured Ukrainian soldier.

That same breakdown soon began to show up directly on the battlefield, when Ukrainian forces moved into Andriivka with very little resistance. In most contested sectors, even small Ukrainian movements are usually detected quickly and met by Russian FPV drones or surveillance strikes before troops can move far into defensive positions. Here, however, footage from the Sumy sector showed Ukrainian troops moving through tree lines and systematically destroying dugouts with anti tank mines step by step before any meaningful Russian response arrived. Russian FPV strikes only appeared later, after Ukrainian troops had already entered positions previously treated as Russian held. This suggested that the Russian side was reacting to Ukrainian advances after they had already happened, rather than stopping them as they unfolded. Because drones are often Russia’s fastest way to compensate for weak infantry presence on the ground, the delayed response indicated that local Russian defenses in this area were already operating more slowly and less effectively than normal.

Overall, these developments show that a front can still look stable on the map even when it is already failing in practice. On this sector, the damage becomes visible only when Ukrainian troops start moving through areas that Russian forces can no longer hold properly. That is what makes this kind of decay dangerous for Russia, because the front may look intact until Ukrainian pressure shows that parts of it are already weaker than they appear. If this continues, Ukraine is likely to find more openings here before Russian command fully understands how fragile the sector has become.

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Today, there is interesting news from inside Russia itself. 

Here, Putin has now signed a decree allowing category D reservists to serve in air defense units in the Russian rear. Extraordinarily, category D reservists include those deemed unfit for military service due to loss of limbs. Soldiers who have lost a leg, arm, or other part of their body, in any way deemed unfit for frontline service, will now be used to operate complex air defense equipment used to take down Ukrainian drones and missiles in the Russian rear. The decree also allows these men to serve in Russian Bars units, officially meant to serve as reservists in the rear, but have been frequently deployed to frontline combat, most notably during the Ukrainian Zaporizhia and Kursk counteroffensives. 

The decree to allow amputees to serve in combat roles either on the frontline or in the rear is reflective of the utmost desperation within the Russian Ministry of Defense, which had appealed to Putin to sign the decree. Russian recruitment numbers are at an all-time low since the full-scale invasion began, while Russian losses are reaching record highs. Most importantly, while Russia is recruiting an average of one-thousand contract soldiers a day, daily Russian losses are reaching an average of one-thousand-three-hundred, resulting in an average recruitment shortage of three-hundred men a day, or nine-thousand men each month. 

Experts believe that after the upcoming Russian parliamentary elections on the twentieth of September this year, Putin will announce a new wave of mobilization. While the legitimacy of Russian elections is frequently cast into doubt by accusations of corruption and fraud, they continue to be a historic primer for civil unrest and political protests. After the last Russian mobilization caused major unrest in itself, Putin fears he needs to delay the official announcement of the next round till after the elections, to avoid the two mutually reinforcing each other and cause civil unrest to become unmanageable. Still, major Russian media channels are already psychologically preparing the Russian public for a new round of mobilization, discussing why it is necessary and how it would solve the problems causing the lack of results in Russia’s special military operation. 

Still, it is important to note that Russian mobilization never officially ended after Putin first announced it in September of two-thousand-twenty-two. After meeting the stated goal of three-hundred-thousand new recruits, the efforts took a quieter and more clandestine role; using deceptive practices like offering students rear-area or technical jobs only to send them to assault roles instead; making foreigners who do not speak Russian sign work or residency contracts that later turn out to be defense contracts; all the way to straight-up beatings and torture of young men doing their obligatory year of military service to force them to sign full service contracts with the army. Most notably, military analysts report that while Russian recruitment initially mainly relied on the high signing bonuses, which currently stand at thirty-thousand euros, it has increasingly been forced to rely on forced methods such as these instead; with recruiters having recently begun raiding factory floors to arrest workers, and then forcing them to sign contracts under threat of beatings for being cowards or being pro-Ukraine. These tactics become even more abhorrent when understanding that the average time between a soldier signing a contract with the Russian army and being killed in Ukraine currently stands at ten to twenty days; a process that is now widely documented and followed through Russian soldiers’ social media activity and them going offline for good. 

Overall, while Russian mobilization never formally ended, a new official announcement will allow the already aggressive recruitment practices to take place more in the open, and at a much larger scale. The practice of now allowing actual amputees to serve in reservist and air defense units will not just result in obvious failed performances against Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on the Russian rear, but it is also a sign of how desperate the situation has grown for Putin, seeking to bridge the gap till elections are concluded, with the Russian military trying to crawl itself past the finish line, but now with arms and legs missing.

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Today, there is important news from the Kharkiv direction.

Here, Russia’s attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces near the border north of Kharkiv is running into serious trouble, as the Ukrainian troops have exposed a critical weakness in the Russian offensive, isolating the enemy infiltration groups that cannot survive without continuous reinforcements.

The situation became particularly dangerous around Zakharkivka, near Vovchansk, where small Russian groups infiltrated Ukrainian defensive positions. Their objective was to establish footholds that could eventually connect with other Russian advances to the east, creating an encirclement, as only a twelve-kilometer corridor would have remained available for Ukrainian forces to avoid being surrounded. Losing that corridor could threaten withdrawal routes, complicate resupply, and expose Ukrainian soldiers to attacks from multiple directions. As a result, Ukraine needed to eliminate the infiltrators before they could consolidate and threaten the western flank of the corridor.

As you may remember from a previous report, the Ukrainian response began well behind the immediate frontline, as Ukrainian drone operators concentrated on disrupting Russian logistics. Supply vehicles, reinforcement routes, and troop movements became targets, preventing infiltrating groups from receiving ammunition, food, replacements, and rotations, exploiting the fundamental weakness of Russia’s infiltration tactics. Small groups can slip through gaps in defensive lines, but controlling territory requires continuous support. Without reinforcements, an infiltration remains an isolated position rather than a sustainable breakthrough. Consequently, Russian troops attempting to complete the encirclement increasingly found themselves stranded inside Ukrainian-controlled or contested territory.

One particularly revealing operation unfolded around Zakharkivka, after Russian soldiers infiltrated it and prepared to move further forward, but Ukrainian reconnaissance identified their movement. Drone crews from the Achilles Brigade immediately launched unmanned aircraft to locate and track the group. The Russians attempted to conceal themselves inside a shelter, hoping to avoid detection and wait for an opportunity to continue their mission.

Instead, Ukrainian Achilles heavy bomber drones, supported by operators from the Astur Unmanned Systems Regiment, attacked their hiding position. The coordinated pressure forced the Russians to abandon their shelter and retreat, but escaping the building did not mean escaping Ukrainian surveillance. Ukrainian drones continued tracking the soldiers as they moved through the area, leaving them exposed and unable to reestablish a concealed position. Realizing they were surrounded by Ukrainian observation and facing further attacks, the Russians raised their hands to signal surrender. 

At that moment, the Ukrainian mission changed from eliminating the assault group to capturing its surviving members. Drone operators maintained surveillance while soldiers from the Ukrainian Rangers Special Operations Forces Regiment approached on foot. The Ukrainian infantry completed the clearing operation and took the Russians prisoner. The coordinated action of three Ukrainian formations therefore prevented another infiltration group from attacking Ukrainian positions while securing additional prisoners for future exchanges. More importantly, this engagement illustrates how Ukraine is dismantling the Russian encirclement attempt, with the contested grey zone becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to hold.

Overall, the stabilization around Zakharkivka weakens the western pincer of the attempted encirclement, protecting Ukrainian movement routes and reducing pressure on the remaining corridor. Combined with stabilization of the eastern flank, this denies Russian forces the opportunity to connect their advances and trap Ukrainian troops near the border. The broader significance extends toward Vovchansk and the northern approaches to Kharkiv, where preventing Russian footholds from developing into permanent positions remains crucial. Russia’s infiltration strategy depends upon establishing positions faster than Ukraine can eliminate them, but systematic Ukrainian interdiction is reversing that calculation and trapping the Russian infiltrators, so they have no choice but to surrender in groups.

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Today, the biggest news comes from Crimea.

Here, a Russian soldier screwed up by posting a selfie on social media, showing himself in secret place designated for the Russian military. What followed sent shockwaves through the Russian rear and obliterated on the most important Russian secret services base.

Recently, Ukrainian kamikaze drones struck a headquarters of the Russian Federal Security Service and an arms depot in Henichesk Hirka, triggering massive fires at both places. However, before striking, the Ukrainians had to go through an elaborate process to even make it to the targets.

To do so, Ukrainian military analysts are using open-source intelligence methods, which involve collecting, analyzing, and verifying publicly available information to investigate events and build situational awareness. Common sources include Russian social media posts, satellite imagery, videos, and photographs. Ukrainian planners use this material to geolocate Russian targets far behind enemy lines by matching visible clues in them with real-world geography. This process typically combines terrain analysis, architecture, infrastructure, and environmental features to determine a precise location and then plan a suitable operation to exploit these findings.

Using these methods, Ukrainian analysts constantly monitor social media, where Russian soldiers often expose their own positions by posting selfies and videos online while boasting about life at their bases. Even a single visible landmark or building is enough in many cases, as Russian intelligence units often choose to operate from luxury resorts, hotels, and seaside complexes, believing these locations offer not only comfort but also concealment. However, using civilian resort infrastructure as a military headquarters also makes it easier to detect and target. The facility in that case was a key Russian deployment and command post, used for storing and preparing missiles and strike drones. The Federal Security Service coordinated the strikes and distributed the weapons to their designated launch points.

After locating the enemy, Ukrainian forces started preparation for the main attack by destroying a Russian Pantsir air defense system, increasing the likelihood of mission success. After that, six Ukrainian long-range drones, operated in real time by remote pilots, attacked the complex on the Arabat Spit in a coordinated sequence. The first strikes focused on the main building, serving as the headquarters of the Russian intelligence unit. The following strikes targeted nearby structures where Russian forces were storing drones, ammunition, and missiles, triggering powerful secondary explosions across the area. To complete the operation, more Ukrainian drones struck the main building again, collapsing large sections of the structure and setting it completely ablaze. Following the series of impacts, a massive column of fire rose above the complex, while ammunition stored inside continued detonating for an extended period afterward.

In another recent example, a Russian soldier unintentionally exposed a military launch site by posting a photo of himself standing in front of pickup trucks carrying Shahed drones, one of the primary systems Russia uses to conduct long-range drone attacks against Ukraine. The image showed a drone mounted on a vehicle, which serves as a mobile launcher, that can quickly deploy and relocate after launching a drone.

Ukrainian analysts examined the image and were able to geolocate it to a specific section of an air base in Russian-controlled Crimea. Shortly after the image appeared on social media, Ukrainian operators subsequently targeted the installation with drones, resulting in multiple fires spreading across the airfield and surrounding infrastructure, as proved by Nasa fire-monitoring satellites. Belbek Air Base, located near Sevastopol, is a key hub for Russian military aviation in the region. It supports a range of operations, including fighter patrols and air defense missions, and is equipped with aircraft such as the Su twenty seven and Mig thirty one. In addition to its established aviation role, the incident also suggested that the airfield has been adapted for use as a launch site for Shahed-type drones.

Overall, one careless social media post was enough to expose a critical Russian military position in Crimea. Ukrainian analysts are always looking out for these mistakes to identify important Russian bases and drone launch sites, to target them before they can strike Ukraine. The incident highlights that information, digital mistakes, and open-source intelligence analysis are playing a key role in Ukraine’s defense...

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In Kursk, a series of devastating Ukrainian strikes has just inflicted new heavy losses on the Chechen Akhmat special forces. As a result, dissatisfaction started growing among the Chechen fighters, with some seeking to abandon the Russian army altogether and switch sides.

As you remember from a previous report, the Ukrainian military intelligence conducted one of its most successful operations against the Akhmat units by infiltrating the formation and managing to place a listening device that exposed their plans, so the Ukrainian forces systematically targeted the Chechen formation.

While Russian security services have likely discovered the bug after suffering those losses, the consequences of the intelligence breach continued to haunt the Chechen unit. Even this didn’t force the Russian command to change location, which allowed Ukrainian forces to remain remarkably effective at targeting Akhmat positions with precision strikes.

One of the most devastating examples occurred in Snizhne, in the Russian-controlled Donetsk region, as Ukrainian FP-Two long-range strike drones targeted a training facility for drone operators and cadets, used by the Seventy-eight Akhmat Special Forces Regiment. The Ukrainian forces launched a coordinated attack involving eleven strike drones, each carrying warheads weighing one hundred kilograms, launching them in successive waves. The main target, a large two-story compound spanning nearly two thousand five hundred square meters, suffered catastrophic damage when ammunition stockpiles stored in the basement detonated during the attack, significantly increasing the strike's destructive effect. Approximately sixty-five Akhmat soldiers were killed, including the commander of the center that housed personnel sleeping rooms, drone assembly workshops, and facilities used for preparing warheads. Geolocated footage from multiple Ukrainian drones showed enormous secondary explosions and the complete collapse of the compound.

Soon afterward, Ukrainian reconnaissance drones easily tracked another concentration of Akhmat forces trying to relocate in Russia’s Kursk region by following them from their starting location. Footage released by Ukrainian operators shows enemy activity in a forest near the border. In a moment, Ukrainian forces launched a Himars strike against the location, with several rockets striking the area one after another. Later footage recorded by surviving Chechen soldiers showed the aftermath of the strike, revealing a large area littered with casualties and destroyed equipment. Around sixty Chechen special forces were killed, while many more were wounded.

Combined with the earlier strike in Snizhne and losses from previous operations, Akhmat units suffered roughly two hundred fatalities within a relatively short period. The significance of these losses extends beyond simple numbers, as repeated strikes against staging areas, training grounds, and concentration sites have reportedly caused growing frustration among Chechen fighters, many of whom believe their commanders have repeatedly exposed them to danger while failing to provide adequate protection.

This frustration became visible during a recent Ukrainian search-and-destroy operation, when a Ukrainian patrol encountered three Akhmat soldiers who voluntarily approached Ukrainian positions. After securing them, Ukrainian forces reportedly learned that the men were not simply seeking to surrender. Instead, they expressed a desire to join the ranks of Chechen volunteers already fighting alongside Ukraine, within formations such as the Sheikh Mansur Battalion. The captured soldiers expressed anger toward pro-Russian Chechen commanders and blamed them for the deaths of many of their compatriots. Rather than continuing to fight for Russia, they wished to switch sides and participate in operations against Russian forces.

Overall, many Chechens fight not only for military or financial reasons, but also because of deeply rooted questions of identity, nationalism, religion, and historical memory. The legacy of the Chechen wars remains powerful for many families, and resentment toward Moscow has never fully disappeared. As losses continue to mount and confidence in pro-Russian leadership weakens, some fighters appear increasingly willing to reconsider where their loyalties lie. If Russia's broader position continues to deteriorate, such tensions could become even more significant, particularly in regions that maintained strong independence movements after the collapse of the Soviet Union and where old grievances remain very much alive.

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Today, the biggest news comes from the Huliaipole direction.

Russian forces are currently reinforcing the Huliaipolie axis in order to try to break the Ukrainian defense in this sector. Russia’s advantage in manpower is four to one across the wider axis and up to seven to one in the most threatened sectors. This troop concentration indicates that Russia regards the Huliaipolie direction as one of its most important fronts. Here, Russia is using its usual infiltration tactics of sending one to three soldiers at a time, who try to get behind Ukrainian lines and accumulate there, while the use of armored vehicles is minimal. To support its infiltration efforts, Russia deployed three elite Rubicon drone units, which are being rotated through the area to try to cover a wider section of the frontline.

Long-term, Russia wants to capture the left-bank part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including Zaporizhzhia city, the regional capital. Russia currently controls approximately seventy-five percent of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, while this figure was around seventy-three percent after the Ukrainian counteroffensive in two thousand and twenty-three. Based on this statistic and their rate of advance this year, which dropped to almost zero in this sector, it is highly unlikely that Russia can achieve its goal. Notably, Russia advanced more than twenty kilometers in two thousand and twenty-five and, by the end of the year, captured Huliaipolie. However, their rate of advance dropped to ten kilometers in two thousand and twenty-six. Given this, it would take seven years for Russia to reach Zaporizhzhia city.

In the short term, the Russian high command has tasked its forces to advance thirty kilometers from Huliaipolie by the end of October. This move would allow them to encircle Orikhiv from the north and cut it off from supplies. Given that Orikhiv is the main supply hub for the Ukrainians here, holding their defense south of the town would be significantly more difficult in case Russia manages to take Orikhiv under its control. However, this goal is also highly unlikely to be achieved in the near future as Russia struggles to make meaningful territorial gains west of Huliaipolie. Notably, the main Ukrainian defense line runs there, which took the Russians approximately eight months to gain a relatively small foothold over it. It consists of extensive anti-tank ditches, dragon’s teeth obstacles, and a series of lines of barbed wire. This is why Russia cannot conduct mechanized assaults here and is forced to rely on infiltrations. Despite getting through the first defense line, Russia still cannot use vehicles to supply its advancing forces or conduct assaults because it couldn’t dismantle the defense line enough to make it easier to pass. After getting through the defense line, which is still constantly monitored by Ukrainian drones, Russian infiltration groups have to go through vast open fields, which are mined. As a result of these conditions, Russia can barely advance here, while its losses are mounting, which has forced it to redeploy troops to try to break the deadlock.

Overall, Russia’s decision to redeploy additional troops and rotate elite Rubicon drone units to the Huliaipolie direction shows that its current tactics are failing to deliver the breakthrough the high command needs. The extensive Ukrainian fortifications, mined open fields, and constant drone surveillance mean that even if Russia redeploys troops here, they will face the same challenges that their comrades failed to overcome. This creates a costly cycle in which Russia must commit more manpower to achieve limited gains, potentially weakening other sectors as troops are diverted to sustain the offensive here. Unless Russian forces find a way to overcome these logistical and defensive obstacles, their ambitions to encircle Orikhiv and eventually reach Zaporizhzhia city will remain far beyond their current capabilities.

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Today, the biggest news comes from the Russian Federation.

Russians are pulling their tanks and other armored vehicles out of Ukraine and back into their massive stockpiles in the rear. Satellite footage and independent analysis show modern T ninety tanks and BTR eighty-two armored vehicles filling up military storage depots all across western and northwestern Russia. Notably, Russia has completely abandoned the idea of armored warfare in Ukraine due to the drone kill zone detecting and intercepting any and all heavy vehicles several kilometers before they reach the front. While this has caused Russia to overly rely on massed infantry assaults and infiltrations that cost them tens of thousands of lives every month, their losses of modern armored vehicles have dropped significantly. Notably, most destroyed Russian tanks are now predominantly older Soviet-era variants like the T fifty-five and the T sixty-two, being used as mobile artillery guns or heavily uparmored assault vehicles. However, Russian production numbers for more modern armored vehicles must go somewhere if not to the battlefield in Ukraine, and as of right now they're building everything up on Nato’s border instead.

Notably, the pattern has been observed in the western and north-western regions of Russia near Nato’s border. Here, Russia is planning a base to house an entire division only eleven kilometers from Norway's borders. Additionally, Russia is filling up its storage base in Buy, which is located five hundred kilometers from the borders of Estonia and Latvia. However, as Russia cannot pull out more armored vehicles from storage to refit them, it is rebuilding its stockpiles with its most modern variants, such as the new T-ninty tank and BTR-eight-two models. Russia’s rate of production didn’t stop, which means Russia can fill its storage bases again with approximately three hundred T-ninty tanks and up to four hundred BMP-three models annually. Simultaneously, artillery depots are also being restocked with Msta-S self-propelled guns and Malva self-propelled guns in Karelia, approximately one hundred and eighty-five kilometers from the Finnish border. Notably, Russia could be building up its armored reserves to potentially take advantage if the static frontline in Ukraine breaks. However, Estonian Defense Minister Martin Gereim stated that its abundant intelligence reports show that Russia will inevitably test the border on one of the Baltic countries, and it cannot be ruled out that the newly deployed tanks and artillery pieces will also be used in these Russian provocations, especially given the location of the equipment buildup.

It’s important to note that the immense Russian investments made into gearing their industrial base toward a protracted war are another significant factor explaining the buildup. A sudden halt in the production of military equipment because they are no longer used on the battlefield in Ukraine would likely lead to the collapse of the Russian economy. This means that Russia is now forced economically to continue the production of tanks and armored vehicles, which serves as an incentive for Russia to prolong the war and even begin a new one to prevent the Russian economy from collapsing, again explaining the decision to house these newly produced vehicles right on the border with Nato.

Overall, Russia’s decision to rebuild its armored reserves suggests that Moscow is preparing for a future in which its military needs more than just infantry and drones to achieve its objectives. Even if these vehicles cannot survive large-scale assaults on today’s battlefield, they could become a serious threat if Russia identifies weaknesses in Nato’s defenses or finds a way to reduce the effectiveness of drones. The greater danger is that Russia’s war economy is creating a cycle in which continued military production requires continued confrontation, making a lasting peace increasingly difficult to achieve. For Europe, this means that the end of the war in Ukraine would not necessarily mean the end of the Russian military threat, but could instead give Moscow the opportunity to rebuild its forces for its next confrontation.

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Today, there is important news from the Zaporizhia direction.

Here, Russian forces attempted to exploit the marshlands of the former Kakhovka Reservoir to stage a surprise advance toward Zaporizhzhia. However, the Ukrainian special forces turned the Russian infiltration operation into a Vietnam-style ambush that the Russians wouldn’t forget soon.

Despite the reality on the ground, the Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, announced that Russian troops had captured Malokaterynivka and were only five kilometers from Zaporizhzhia, while Vladimir Putin publicly repeated the claim, presenting it as another major Russian success.

The Russian operation unfolded across the former bed of the Kakhovka Reservoir, emptied after the destruction of the dam in two-thousand-twenty-three by the Russian army. Since then, dense vegetation has spread across the exposed terrain, creating an extraordinary landscape of young forests, marshes, and narrow waterways as the Dnipro River returns toward its original course, with the freed-up land giving fruitful ground for new plants to grow.

The environment, resembling a tropical jungle more than the conventional Ukrainian battlefield, offered Russian infiltration groups an opportunity. Dense foliage obstructs aerial reconnaissance, limits drone visibility, and allows small groups to move beneath the trees without immediately revealing their positions. Russian commanders hoped to exploit these conditions to reach Ukrainian-held territory, record another symbolic flag-planting video so their higher command could claim advancing toward Zaporizhzhia.

However, the Ukrainian military intelligence anticipated the danger and released footage showing soldiers from its Timur Special Forces Unit conducting counter-sabotage operations inside the vegetation. The Ukrainian soldiers wore specialized ghillie suits, allowing them to blend into the surrounding trees and undergrowth. The denseness of the vegetation proved as negative to the Russians as the positive they hoped to exploit, because it made it extremely difficult to traverse, making their infiltration routes extremely limited. And that is where Ukrainians set up their ambushes, establishing concealed positions and waiting for Russian infiltrators to fall into the trap.

The first Russian soldier encountered refused an opportunity to surrender and was killed. Another immediately dropped his weapon and lay on the ground, becoming a prisoner. When additional Russians ignored Ukrainian calls to surrender, the Ukrainian group requested thermal-imaging drone support. The drone helped identify concealed soldiers beneath the vegetation, while aerial explosives forced them from their hiding places.

Ukrainian troops subsequently discovered the eliminated infiltrators and continued clearing the area. Soon, another Russian group appeared, triggering a close-range firefight among the dense trees. One Russian soldier was killed, while another was captured.

The Russians themselves wore camouflage clothing intended to conceal their movements, but their equipment proved insufficient against the coordinated Ukrainian reconnaissance and ambush. A Ukrainian heavy octocopter was then brought in against another infiltration group. Its attacks killed two Russian soldiers, while the remaining fighter surrendered; Ukrainian troops provided him first aid, bandaged his wounds, and took him prisoner.

The entire engagement demonstrated how difficult fighting inside these marshlands has become, as visibility is restricted, engagements occur at extremely short distances, and conventional aerial surveillance must be combined with concealed infantry and thermal reconnaissance. Yet despite these unsuccessful infiltration attempts, Gerasimov publicly declared that Russia was on the outskirts of Zaporhizhia city.

Ukraine responded by exposing the contradiction, as Maksym Kravchuk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Group of Forces, rejected Gerasimov’s announcement and confirmed that Malokaterynivka remained under Ukrainian control. Soldiers from Ukraine’s one-hundred-twenty-eight Heavy Mechanized Brigade then recorded footage directly inside the settlement, publicly demonstrating their continued presence. Kravchuk also explained that Russian positions were approximately twenty-five kilometers from Zaporizhzhia’s southern outskirts, not five, and ridiculed the Russian command’s claims as another collection of fairy tales presented to Putin rather than an accurate description of the battlefield.

Overall, the result was particularly embarrassing because Russian forces had attempted to exploit one of the region’s most unusual environments, where thick vegetation offered opportunities for concealed movement.

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Today, there are important updates from the Dobropillia direction.

Here, Russian forces attempting to break through toward Dobropillia are walking into an increasingly devastating Ukrainian kill zone, where even the smallest available shelter has become a deadly trap. Despite months of fighting, Russian troops have failed to establish secure control over Bilytske, forcing commanders to continue sending reinforcements through Rodynske and across exposed approaches.

The Russian goal remains unchanged to push north and west, reach Dobropillia, and establish another foothold from which to expand their offensive beyond Pokrovsk. To accomplish this, Russian assault groups are advancing along two narrow routes extending from Rodynske. These approaches offer limited concealment through vegetation and terrain features, but much of the surrounding landscape consists of exposed fields, and that is precisely where Ukrainian drone operators have established their ambushes.
                  
Ukrainian reconnaissance drones continuously monitor Russian movement, while FPV operators wait for soldiers to emerge from cover. Small infiltration groups attempting to cross the open ground become vulnerable long before they reach the frontline, with the resulting casualties being enormous. During September alone, Ukraine’s Lubart Brigade, operating within the Azov Corps, reported killing three-hundred-and-sixty-one Russian soldiers and wounding another two-hundred-twenty-nine along these approaches near Rodynske.

But one location illustrates the brutality of the fighting, as Russian soldiers wounded during these attacks frequently receive no assistance or evacuation. Those capable of moving desperately search for shelter, yet the surrounding fields provide almost nowhere to hide.

One of the few available structures is a narrow funnel beneath a railway embankment, and the Russians try reaching it, hoping the concrete structure will protect them. Instead, Ukrainian operators recognized the predictable movement pattern and began monitoring the passage itself, with FPV drones positioned to intercept Russians approaching the shelter, turning what appeared to be a refuge into another deadly ambush.

Repeated Russian attempts to use the same route have reportedly left dozens of bodies around the railway crossing, with Ukrainian footage showing casualties scattered along the approaches, marking the path of successive infiltration groups, leading to the railway passage being turned into a death funnel. Yet Russian commanders continue sending additional soldiers through the surrounding fields and into it, because alternative approaches offer even little protection.

This reflects the broader failure of Russia’s offensive north of Pokrovsk, because since capturing the city in February, Russian forces have attempted to exploit this by advancing toward Dobropillia. However, Ukrainian drone defenses have reduced their progress to a costly struggle for individual positions, with nearly twenty thousand killed and more than ten thousand wounded Russians in the sector since the capture. Territorial progress has been considerably less impressive, with Russian military commentators describing advances measured in mere tens of meters.

However, time is becoming another enemy now, as the Russian commanders need to reach Dobropillia before autumn rains transform the surrounding fields into deep mud. Infiltration groups already struggling across exposed terrain would become slower, before the incoming winter introduces additional difficulties, including freezing temperatures, reduced vegetation, and even limited opportunities for concealment. Capturing Dobropillia would provide buildings, basements, and hardened positions where Russian troops could shelter, consolidate, and prepare further operations, but reaching those positions requires surviving the Ukrainian drone defenses first.

Overall, despite sacrificing thousands of soldiers along the approaches to Dobropillia, Russian forces remain unable to securely control even Bilytske or establish a substantial foothold on Dobropillia’s outskirts. The worsening weather therefore threatens to expose the limits of Russia’s capabilities beyond Pokrovsk: the Russian army captured the city, but its troops are still paying an extraordinary price simply trying to advance beyond it.

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Today, there is amazing news from Ukraine. 

After the US administration put a major restriction on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself through Starlink, Ukraine’s allies turned up in massive numbers to provide as much assistance as they can. Assistance numbering in the billions of euros is now flooding into Ukraine, along with new undisclosed weapon systems that begs the question of what Europe has sent next. 

The need for this aid could not be more urgent, as currently the United States administration has imposed a one-hundred-mile or one-hundred-sixty-kilometer per hour speed restriction on Starlink connections throughout Ukraine. This completely undermines Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against conventional and jet-powered Shahed drones, as Ukraine’s interceptor drones need to keep up with speeds exceeding four hundred to seven hundred kilometers an hour to intercept them. Subsequently, Ukraine has been victim to a continuous barrage of these Russian drones over the past days, resulting in air raid alerts sounding almost continuously and close to four hundred civilian casualties in only four days.  

Fortunately for Ukraine, European allies have stepped up and provided Ukrainians with extremely urgent air defense aid to protect the skies against Russian strikes. Currently, the United Kingdom has sent Ukraine an unknown quantity of lightweight multirole missiles; most likely the short-ranged missiles that Ukraine uses to intercept fast-moving targets like cruise missiles and jet-powered Shaheds. Poland has also provided Ukraine with confidential assistance to protect against Russian air strikes. Donald Tusk added that he wanted to assure Ukraine and Ukrainians that they are not alone, and could count on Poland and the EU. France is similarly organizing a new massive package of air defense aid to send to Ukraine as soon as possible, but is keeping the quantity and type of systems it will send a complete secret. Additionally, France has just completed their side of the Freya European anti-ballistic missile system development, and has transferred all the promised production licenses to Ukraine, which will enter factories shortly.  During Zelensky’s visit to Belgium as well, Ukraine was given a large ammunition package for the F-sixteens in service. These jet fighters have proven to be crucial in the interception of fast-moving Russian strike weapons, particularly the jet-powered Shahed drones. Additionally, Belgium will deliver more of its F-sixteen fleet to Ukraine by the end of the year, with the transfer of such systems being a more significant undertaking. 

The European Union as a whole also organized its next massive tranche of aid to Ukraine, with over two-point-eight-six billion euros dedicated to the procurement of air defense systems and missiles for Ukraine. This follows another massive tranche of nearly one billion two hundred forty million euros dedicated to the domestic Ukrainian production of interceptor drones and missiles the week before. Earlier this month as well, Germany has provided Ukraine with a full Iris-T air defense battery. They have also dedicated over a billion euros worth of funding for the production of thousands of missiles for the Iris-T air defense system, as well as for the production of interceptor drones capable of downing jet-powered Shahed drones. Finally, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Spain have provided additional patriot interceptor missiles, experimental anti-drone missiles capable of taking down jet-powered Shahed drones, alongside other air defense and F-sixteen ammunition packages. 

Overall, Europe’s quick response in stepping up to aid Ukraine now that the situation has taken a turn for the worse is important. Much of the aid that has been sent is undisclosed, giving Russia zero ability to anticipate Ukraine’s defenses and adjust its strike strategy accordingly. Czech president Andrej Babis stated that pursuing peace does not mean accepting Russian ideas, and Trump has let them down by doing business with Putin behind their backs, so they have to do something. Europe has no equivalent to the military use of Starlink that can be deployed quickly at scale to Ukraine, also lacking early warning capabilities to ballistic and long-range strike launches. However, Europe is sending what it can and is currently scaling up what it cannot yet provide, giving a promising forecast for future support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion and terror strikes.

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Today, the biggest news comes from the Russian Federation.

Here, the Russian High Command’s latest briefing on the state of the war shows how detached they really are from the real situation on the ground. While Ukrainians are exploiting this detachment to the maximum militarily, it also exposes a massive problem for Ukraine and its western allies as a whole, as a delusional enemy could be more dangerous than a sane one. 

During Putin’s latest briefing on the war, Russia’s top generals presented him with a completely distorted picture of what is happening on the battlefield. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov described Russian forces as advancing far beyond their actual positions, including claims of major progress around Dobropillia and an encirclement in the Kharkiv region that does not exist. Russian troops were even sent into Dobropillia to briefly raise flags and manufacture evidence supporting these supposed gains. The real problem begins inside the Kremlin, because these reports are reaching Putin as official battlefield assessments, and he appears to genuinely believe that Russia is winning.

That distorted picture is already causing serious damage to Russian forces on the ground, because commanders are being pushed to achieve objectives that their own reports claim are already within reach. Russian units keep attacking exhausted sectors, reinforcing exposed positions, and committing more manpower and equipment to advances that have already stalled. Ukraine has repeatedly exploited that pressure by striking weakened formations and launching counterattacks once Russian offensive power is drained. The clearest example is the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Lyman, where months of costly Russian assaults exhausted the forces holding the salient and gave Ukrainian troops the opportunity to break through and regain ground. Similar Russian overcommitment across the frontline is creating further opportunities for Ukraine, as Moscow keeps spending combat power trying to make the real battlefield resemble the successes already reported to Putin.

The larger danger begins once these false reports shape Putin’s decisions about the war itself. From the Kremlin, repeated claims of Russian advances make the current strategy appear successful and convince Putin that continued pressure is bringing Ukraine closer to defeat. Russian losses stop functioning as a warning that the war is becoming too costly, because he is being told that those losses are producing steady territorial progress. That gives Putin every reason to expand the same approach through larger offensives, broader mobilization, and heavier missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities, while truces and ceasefires become less attractive when he believes Russian forces are already winning. The more success his generals invent on the battlefield, the stronger Putin’s incentive becomes to continue and escalate the war.

For example, the claim that Russian forces are now only five kilometers from Zaporizhia shows how these false reports can turn into real military decisions. Once Putin is told that his troops are already approaching the city, Russian commanders come under pressure to prepare Zaporizhia itself for attack, increasing glide bomb strikes and moving artillery farther forward so more systems can reach the city directly. That movement reduces Russian fire support on the front while placing valuable artillery systems and aircraft operating around the sector closer to Ukrainian reconnaissance, drones, and medium-range strikes. Ukraine gains more opportunities to destroy Russian assets as they are pushed toward the front. Yet that military advantage comes alongside a far more dangerous situation for civilians as Zaporizhia faces heavier bombardment. Putin also has little reason to abandon the offensive when the reports reaching him say Russian forces are already standing just outside the city. A fabricated advance on a briefing map produces real Russian losses, real attacks on Ukrainian civilians, and another reason for the Kremlin to continue an offensive built around progress that never happened.

Overall, the greater danger is that Russia’s command system now rewards reports of success more than accurate information, making future military decisions increasingly detached from battlefield reality. As long as commanders protect themselves by exaggerating progress, Moscow will keep committing fresh manpower and equipment to objectives that appear attainable only on paper. Ukraine gains a strategic incentive to concentrate pressure on the sectors where Russian leadership has made the largest promises, because failures there become harder to disguise and more damaging inside the Kremlin.

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Today, the biggest news comes from the Russian Federation.

Russia openly rejected Trump’s energy ceasefire, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he does not think Zelensky deserves a ceasefire. In response, Ukraine went all in and destroyed Russia’s most important oil pumping stations and loading facilities. Ukrainian drones struck storage tanks at the oil loading terminal of Russia’s Novoshakhtinsk petroleum products plant in Rostov. The facility serves as a transshipment hub used for fuel storage and maritime export, while functioning as a critical logistical node supplying fuel to Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces then struck the Samara oil pumping station, which is a major hub for receiving, storing, and blending crude delivered by pipelines from Tatarstan and Western Siberia. The facility is also supplying the Russian military, which is why Ukraine targeted it three times in several days. After this strike, Ukrainian drones set an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast ablaze, destroying it.

These strikes come after Donald Trump announced a deal with Russia, allowing it to supply diesel to the American and global markets, with the US temporarily lifting related sanctions. Russia promised more than three hundred thousand metric tons immediately, another five hundred thousand tons in November, and one million tons shortly thereafter. These volumes are modest relative to demand because the initial three hundred thousand tons equals less than one day of US consumption. Taken together, this much diesel, which will be released on three separate occasions, is only around zero point five percent of diesel consumption globally in a day, which means this amount wouldn’t influence the global price of diesel at all. More importantly, Russia could only deliver the promised amounts if its damaged refineries restart and Ukraine pauses attacks on them. Notably, Ukrainian strikes have reduced refining capacity by up to fifty percent, which forced Russia to import diesel rather than export it. What makes this deal even more critical is that Russia can earn up to seven billion dollars by selling diesel to further fuel its war against Ukraine, while global prices won’t decrease because the increase in supply is so small.

Although Ukraine opposed the deal, it initially held back from striking Russian refineries after the agreement was announced. Kyiv had been prepared to continue these attacks, but the deal between Trump and Putin offered concessions to Moscow without providing Ukraine with anything in return. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made it clear that Kyiv was willing to agree to a mutual halt on attacks against energy infrastructure, provided that both sides respected the arrangement.  However, Russia has now broken the arrangement, prompting Ukraine to resume its campaign against Russia's oil industry. The first target was Lukoil's Ukhta oil refinery, which can process approximately four point two million tonnes of crude oil annually, producing gasoline and diesel. It also supplies fuel and lubricants to Russian forces, making it an important part of the country's military supply network.
Ukraine then struck the Omsk Oil Refinery, Russia's largest refining facility, which processes more than twenty-two million tonnes of crude oil per year, accounting for roughly ten percent of the country's total refining capacity. At the same time, Ukrainian drones targeted the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refining and petrochemical complex. The complex can process up to ten million tonnes of hydrocarbons annually, making it a significant producer of refined petroleum products and petrochemicals.

Overall, Russia is trying to turn a temporary energy agreement into a financial lifeline, but its ability to profit depends on keeping the very infrastructure Ukraine is systematically targeting operational. By striking pumping stations, storage facilities, and refineries, Ukraine is attacking not just Russia’s oil revenue, but also its ability to move fuel to the front lines and deliver on promises to international buyers. This creates a dilemma for Moscow because if it cannot fulfill its agreement with the US, Russia will miss out on earning billions of dollars, which it desperately needs.

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Music Credits:
Music: Breaking News - SergePavkinMusic
Music Link: https://youtu.be/KMYhCXehcp8

عناوین مهم خبری:
قطر درخواست تهران برای ورود صلیب سرخ به پرونده خلبانان را «ترفند رسانه‌ای» خواند
تنش تازه تهران و ابوظبی؛ امارات از شلیک دو موشک از ایران خبر داد، جمهوری اسلامی تکذیب کرد
تشدید تنش ایران و امارات؛ ابوظبی تمام مبادلات تجاری و تراکنش‌های مالی با تهران را متوقف کرد
ترامپ و محمد بن زاید همزمان با تشدید تنش ایران و امارات گفت‌وگو کردند
توقیف نفتکش اماراتی در تنگه هرمز؛ کشتی به سمت بندرعباس منتقل شد
قالیباف خواستار «نظم جدید منطقه بدون دخالت خارجی» شد؛ کشورهای منطقه اسرائیل را دشمن می‌دانند
وال‌استریت ژورنال: کشورهای عرب خلیج فارس میان تهران و واشینگتن گرفتار شده‌اند
تنش دیپلماتیک ایران و فرانسه بالا گرفت؛ پاریس دو دیپلمات جمهوری اسلامی را اخراج می‌کند
چهار ایرانی زندانی در کویت با سفیر جمهوری اسلامی دیدار کردند
عراق به دنبال دور زدن بحران تنگه هرمز؛ مسیرهای جدید صادرات نفت راه‌اندازی می‌شود
تغییر راهبرد ترامپ در برابر جمهوری اسلامی؛ توقف مذاکرات و حرکت به سوی «خفه کردن تدریجی»
افزایش شدید قیمت گازوئیل در آمریکا؛ صنایع و کشاورزان زیر فشار هزینه‌های سوخت
ترامپ: مذاکره‌ای با جمهوری اسلامی در کار نیست؛ انتشار تصویر «ایران را دوباره باشکوه کنیم»
پنتاگون: ارتش آمریکا آماده شکست هر تهدیدی در زمان و مکان انتخابی خود است
تهدید جنگ در اروپا؛ جمهوری اسلامی حمله به اهداف نظامی در بلغارستان و قبرس را بررسی کرده است
هشدار ناتو به جمهوری اسلامی؛ آماده دفاع از متحدان در برابر هرگونه تهدید هستیم
درآمد تنگه هرمز برای نیروهای مسلح؛ نماینده قم از سهم ۴۰ درصدی بخش نظامی خبر داد
فرمانده پیشین نیروی دریایی اسرائیل: ترامپ در حال گرفتن آخرین اهرم ایران در تنگه هرمز است
فشار حداکثری آمریکا بر جمهوری اسلامی؛ فرمانده اسرائیلی: هدف «خفه کردن اقتصاد ایران» است
نفتالی بنت: هر حمله حزب‌الله با حمله مستقیم اسرائیل به ایران پاسخ داده می‌شود
نفتالی بنت: در صورت بازگشت به قدرت قطر را «کشور دشمن» اعلام می‌کنم
تهدید نخست‌وزیر عراق از سوی گروه‌های نزدیک به تهران؛ هشدار درباره احتمال سوءقصد و تشدید تدابیر امنیتی

خلاصه:
تنش‌های منطقه‌ای پیرامون جمهوری اسلامی وارد مرحله تازه‌ای شده و همزمان فشارهای سیاسی، اقتصادی و نظامی بر تهران افزایش یافته است. امارات متحده عربی اعلام کرد دو موشک بالستیک شلیک‌شده از ایران را شناسایی کرده؛ ادعایی که سخنگوی وزارت خارجه جمهوری اسلامی آن را رد کرده است. همزمان ابوظبی از توقف تمام مبادلات تجاری و تراکنش‌های مالی با ایران تا اطلاع ثانوی خبر داد. دونالد ترامپ نیز در تماس با محمد بن زاید درباره تحولات خاورمیانه و تقویت روابط دو کشور گفت‌وگو کرد. در همین حال، یک نفتکش اماراتی توقیف‌شده در تنگه هرمز به سمت بندرعباس منتقل شده است.
در جبهه دیپلماتیک نیز فشارها ادامه دارد. قطر درخواست جمهوری اسلامی برای ورود صلیب سرخ به پرونده خلبانان ایرانی را «ترفند رسانه‌ای» خوانده و می‌گوید تهران هنوز به دعوت دوحه برای اعزام هیئت و بررسی پرونده پاسخ نداده است. فرانسه نیز پس از اقدام متقابل تهران، از اخراج دو دیپلمات ایرانی خبر داده است.
در آمریکا، سی‌ان‌ان گزارش داده ترامپ به فرستادگان ارشد دولت خود دستور توقف گفت‌وگو با جمهوری اسلامی را داده و کاخ سفید در حال تغییر راهبرد از «درهم کوبیدن سریع» حکومت ایران به «خفه کردن تدریجی» آن است. ترامپ نیز تاکید کرده هیچ مذاکره‌ای با جمهوری اسلامی در جریان نیست. همزمان یک مقام ارشد پنتاگون می‌گوید ارتش آمریکا توان شکست هر تهدیدی را در زمان و مکان انتخابی خود دارد و واشینگتن به دنبال افزایش سریع تولید و ذخایر تسلیحاتی است.
دامنه نگرانی‌ها به اروپا نیز رسیده است. فایننشال تایمز به نقل از منابع نزدیک به حکومت ایران گزارش داده جمهوری اسلامی در صورت تشدید جنگ، حمله به اهداف نظامی آمریکا در جنوب شرقی اروپا، از جمله بلغارستان و قبرس، را بررسی کرده است. ناتو در واکنش اعلام کرده برای مقابله با هر تهدیدی و دفاع از تمام متحدان آماده است.
در تنگه هرمز نیز کشمکش ادامه دارد. یک نماینده مجلس گفته ۴۰ درصد درآمدهای موردنظر از این آبراه به تقویت نیروهای مسلح اختصاص خواهد یافت. در مقابل، فرمانده پیشین نیروی دریایی اسرائیل می‌گوید تاکید ترامپ بر کنترل تنگه هرمز، آخرین اهرم راهبردی تهران را هدف گرفته و هدف فشارهای آمریکا «خفه کردن اقتصاد ایران» است. عراق نیز برای کاهش وابستگی به مسیرهای دریایی خلیج فارس، سازوکار تازه‌ای برای صادرات نفت از مسیرهای مختلف تصویب کرده است.
همزمان نفتالی بنت گفته در صورت بازگشت به قدرت، هر حمله حزب‌الله با حمله مستقیم به ایران پاسخ داده خواهد شد. در عراق نیز منابع دولتی از تهدید نخست‌وزیر این کشور توسط گروه‌های مسلح نزدیک به تهران و هشدار دستگاه‌های اطلاعاتی درباره احتمال سوءقصد خبر داده‌اند؛ تحولاتی که نشان می‌دهد فشار بر جمهوری اسلامی و نیروهای نزدیک به آن، از خلیج فارس تا عراق و اروپا، در حال گسترش است.


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