داستان ضحاک یکی از معروف‌ترین داستان‌های شاهنامه‌ی فردوسی است. حکایت پادشاهی ستمگر که با قیام کاوه‌ی آهنگر به دست فریدون‌شاه سرنگون شد. بسیاری از مخالفان جمهوری اسلامی، علی خامنه‌ای را "ضحاک زمانه" می‌خوانند. مجموعه‌ی "ضحاک‌نامه" که در ویژه‌برنامه‌ی نوروز ۱۴۰۵ ایران اینترنشنال پخش شد، داستان ضحاک را با امروز ایران پیوند می‌زند.

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در روز سی‌ام جنگ، هم‌زمان با گسترش دامنه درگیری‌ها در منطقه و افزایش فشارهای نظامی، ارسال نیروهای جدید آمریکا به منطقه و پیام تند و جنگ طلبانه قالیباف، نشانه‌های بن‌بست در داخل حکومت ایران بیش از هر زمان دیگری نمایان شده است
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🔰اگر موضوعی جالب برای ویدئوی بعدی دارید کامنت بدین ما سعی میکنم که براتون بسازیم

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In this video, we will analyze Ukraine’s operation targeting the Kerch Bridge.

Here, Ukraine just unveiled its new underwater drone, built to destroy the Kerch bridge. This caused absolute panic among the Russians, knowing that now their bridge is becoming increasingly vulnerable to a Ukrainian strike.

Recently, a Ukrainian company revealed its latest heavy underwater drone, the Sea Trident. It seems that it was specifically designed to destroy strategic targets, like the Kerch bridge. The drone has a one-thousand-kilogram payload, which could damage the support elements below the waterline that hold the bridge. Russia’s defenses are built mainly to stop air and surface threats, while this drone attacks from under the water, which Russia is less capable of defending. With a three thousand and two hundred kilometer range, Ukraine can launch it from anywhere on its coast, and a maximum operating depth of sixty meters complicates detection. This makes the Sea Trident the underwater element for a combined strike against the Kerch bridge.

Standard Ukrainian drones would be used mainly to overwhelm Russia's air defenses, while missiles can strike the bridge from above in coordination with new underwater drones striking the pillars from below. Additionally, drones with enhanced warheads or thermobaric charges, such as the Behemoth, can be deployed, as they have already proved their effectiveness in disabling the bridges in northern Crimea. However, to maximize the chance of structural damage to the much bigger Kerch Bridge, Ukraine would combine these drones with long-range Neptune and Flamingo missiles with much heavier warheads of up to one ton of explosives, as they can provide a more impactful aerial strike layer. These missiles threaten support infrastructure, and the bridge spans from above, while naval drones suppress the defenses and underwater drones strike the bridge supports. All operations can be protected by naval drones equipped with FPV-launch and air defense capabilities, which can attack patrol aircraft and boats, forming a Kerch Bridge kill chain where each layer is designed to overwhelm a different Russian element of defense.

The recent Ukrainian strikes around the bridge are part of a systematic campaign to make the Kerch bridge less protected. So far, Ukraine has avoided a premature direct strike on the bridge itself and focused on targeting its surrounding defense infrastructure as preparation for the final blow that Russia knows is coming.

In the past few weeks, Ukraine has targeted the exact systems Russia needs to detect drones, missiles, and maritime threats before they reach the bridge. Notably, Ukraine’s drones hit a radar system in Feodosia, responsible for the tracking of targets at low altitudes, which leaves Russia with less warning time against Ukrainian drones. The most recent Ukrainian strike disabled four S-four-hundred radars, which weakens Russian early-warning capabilities against Ukrainian cruise and ballistic missiles, while the two destroyed Pantsir systems around the bridge weaken its short-range protection, exposing it even more.

An electronic warfare system interfering with Starlink was also destroyed in Kerch, as it was interrupting the communication of Ukrainian drone operators with their drones. These operations are opening corridors for drones, forcing Russian systems to relocate, and making the bridge harder to defend during a combined strike. Simultaneously, Ukraine cleared the way for its maritime drones by striking two long-range anti-submarine aircraft on the ground, which were designed to hunt underwater vessels like the Sea Trident. With this strike, Ukraine is blinding the systems that could stop the underwater strike, increasing the chances of the Sea Trident reaching the Kerch bridge.

As a result of this series of strikes, the Russians sound the alarm that a massive, combined strike on the bridge is inevitable. Because of the success of recent Ukrainian strikes, many Russians have nearly already accepted that the Kerch bridge will be struck eventually, as proved by the anxiety of their military analysts. Combined with the repeated bridge closures due to nearby attacks, Russia isn’t guessing anymore, but tries to prepare for a nightmare that is now only a matter of time.

Overall, the newly developed Ukrainian underwater drone changes Russia’s defense posture by forcing it to expect simultaneous threats from the air, the surface, and underwater, creating a real defensive nightmare. Now, each destroyed Russian defensive asset reduces Russia’s ability to defend against the final strike, which the Russians know is coming. Losing the Kerch bridge would be devastating for Russia as it is a logistical artery, a geopolitical trophy, which the Ukrainian bridge-killer drones now...

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Russians have now officially started to dismantle their own air defense, leaving even more gaps for Ukraine to exploit. All of this was done solely to increase the number of strikes on Ukraine, as Russia has begun converting its existing air defense missiles into ground-attack ballistic missiles. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia converted around two-hundred missiles in two-thousand-and-twenty-five and plans to convert an additional four-hundred-and-eighty by the end of this year. However, as these missiles were never designed for such ground-attack purposes, their accuracy is horribly ineffective. Additionally, using air defense interceptors as strike weapons creates a serious long-term vulnerability for Russian air defense as a whole, as production capabilities is refocused and repurposed, while Russians already suffer from a serious air defense problem.

Russian air defenses are already placed under significant strain, with Russian military analysts stating that Russia is experiencing a true air defense shortage. Ukrainian saturation tactics using waves of drones and missiles force Russian systems to already expend valuable interceptors, with some units already reporting a shortage. Instead of addressing this shortage, the Russian leadership has decided to prioritize offensive strikes against Ukraine. This decision may exploit Ukraine’s own shortage of ballistic missile interceptors, but it leaves Russia with a thinner and less capable defensive shield of its own, while Ukraine works to strengthen theirs instead. Despite this obvious misalignment of priorities, Russia is now focusing massively on launching as many of them as possible to strike targets across Kyiv.

The latest Russian strike involved twenty-four ballistic missiles, four Zircon missiles, and more than one hundred drones. Russians deployed ballistic missiles with cluster warheads to target warehouses within the city. As a result of the attacks, seventeen people were killed, more than forty were injured, and fire raging for hours.

Simultaneously, Russia is importing additional offensive capacity while prioritizing missiles that weaken or fail to replenish its homeland defense. A North Korean missile unit has recently been deployed to the Voronezh region to support missile strikes against Ukraine. The contingent includes approximately six individual ballistic missile launchers and more than one-hundred-and-twenty ballistic missiles. These North Korean missiles and launchers will soon enable Russia to conduct even larger salvos and more frequent attacks on Ukraine, putting Ukraine’s air defense network under increasing strain.

However, destroying the launchers before firing may be more realistic than attempting to intercept every missile after launch. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has declared that North Korean missile installations or systems deployed to attack Ukraine are legitimate military targets. President Volodymyr Zelensky has additionally made a decree to prioritize the destruction of Russian ballistic missile launchers to reduce the number of strikes against Ukraine. Zelensky stressed that Ukrainian forces already know how to track the locations of the launchers with the help of Western intelligence support. At the same time, Ukraine is working together with European partners to produce an anti-ballistic missile air-defense system as a long-term solution. The interceptor missiles of the Freya system will be manufactured domestically by Fire Point, while its radar and sensors would be supplied by Europe. This would help to reduce Ukraine’s dependence on the US-made Patriot system with a domestic alternative. If this new air defense system is successfully developed and mass-produced, while Ukraine strikes Russia’s launchers, Ukraine could significantly reduce the number of successful ballistic missile strikes. Moscow is now exploiting Ukraine’s temporary shortage, but it is encouraging Ukraine to destroy Russian launchers and accelerate a European replacement for Patriot.

Overall, diverting air defense interceptors into ground-attack missiles is Russia’s biggest mistake, because they are trading long-term homeland protection for short-term strike capacity against Ukraine. Every gap in Russian protection, which they voluntarily make, creates additional opportunities for Ukraine, which they can exploit. Additionally, importing North Korean missiles increases short-term attack volume but does nothing to repair the growing defensive vulnerability inside Russia. Russia is trying to exploit Ukraine’s temporary shortage by creating a potentially longer-term shortage in its own defensive system.

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Today, there is important news from the Russian Federation.

Here, Ukraine’s campaign against Russia’s oil industry intensified, with explosions and fires reported at Lukoil’s massive Volgograd refinery. Processing roughly fifteen million tons annually, the facility produces gasoline, diesel and aviation kerosene essential to Russia’s economy and military. During the same attack wave, Ukraine also struck the Samara oil-distribution station, an important node involved in producing Russia’s oil export blend. These attacks followed an extraordinary week in which Ukraine reported strikes against six Russian refineries, demonstrating that individual raids can easily be turned into a systematic campaign with dangerous results for Russia.

As a result, the scale is becoming economically significant, as Ukraine’s Defense Ministry stated that more than fifty-one percent of Russia’s refining capacity has now been put out of operation, describing the objective as bleeding Russia’s military-economic system. Despite Putin acknowledging that attacks on energy infrastructure are affecting economic performance, his tactic is to translate this into a percentage change in gross domestic product only to hide the real economic effect and mislead the Russian public. Putin openly admitted a decrease of only about one percent of a roughly two-point-seven-trillion US dollar economy, which is approximately twenty-seven billion dollars. The broader cumulative consequences of the Ukrainian strikes, however, extend far beyond direct refinery damage through disrupted production, transportation, exports, repairs, and military fuel supplies, making опенUkrainian strikes deal even more harm due to their repetitive nature.

At Ilsky, Ukrainian drones damaged all three primary processing units, destroying almost the whole refining capacity. With the tank farm also damaged, production reportedly stopped at the key refinery supplying southern Russia and military logistics.

Novoshakhtinsk, capable of processing approximately five-point-six million tons annually, was also attacked by Ukrainian drones. Its connections to major rail and oil terminals make disruption there particularly damaging to fuel transportation across southern Russia.

Then Ukraine reached Perm, approximately one-thousand-and-five-hundred kilometers away. Fires were reported around several sections of the thirteen-million-ton Lukoil refinery, including the Avt-Five unit, responsible for roughly one-third of primary processing.

The next Ukrainian strike in Ufa also demonstrated that even distance no longer guarantees protection. Ukrainian drones attacked Bashneft’s enormous refining cluster more than one-thousand-three-hundred kilometers from Ukraine on consecutive days, damaging facilities producing diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel.

At Kuibyshev in Samara, large fires were reported around the primary distillation infrastructure after incoming drone strikes. The refinery can process approximately seven million tons annually and produces substantial quantities of diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil, with the process now halted.

The Saratov refinery was hit again as well after previous strikes earlier this year. The Rosneft refinery processes up to seven million tons annually and produces fuels used by both civilian consumers and Russia’s military-industrial system.

The Ryazan refinery represents an even larger target, as it can process approximately seventeen million tons annually, and Ukrainian strikes ignited its primary-processing units, threatening an important source of motor fuel around Moscow.

Repeated strikes matter because repaired units can be damaged again, forcing Russia into an expensive cycle of restoration while simultaneously protecting an enormous network of refineries, pipelines and pumping stations. The consequences therefore extend far beyond destroyed equipment, as Russia requires petroleum products to move tanks, trucks and aircraft, while energy exports and taxation remain crucial sources of state revenue. Refinery disruption creates repair expenses, logistical bottlenecks, and pressure on domestic fuel availability while forcing additional resources into air defense.

Overall, Ukraine’s strategy is methodical, repeatedly attacking the infrastructure that converts Russian crude oil into economically and militarily valuable products. If Ukrainian estimates of more than half of refining capacity being disabled even temporarily are sustained, the pressure will increasingly reach Russia’s war machine itself. Putin must simultaneously finance the war, replace military losses, repair energy infrastructure, and protect facilities scattered across an enormous territory, while Ukrainian drones are demonstrating that increasingly little of that territory remains safely beyond their reach.

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